One of the most significant changes we’ve seen in 2023 is the rise in mortgage rates. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a year-to-date high of 6.79% in the first week of June, representing an upward shift from previous years. This increase in mortgage rates presents a unique challenge, particularly for first-time homebuyers who are striving to secure affordable financing for their dream homes.

Although rates have cooled marginally since the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, the market remains in a state of flux. Factors such as ongoing inflation, bank sector volatility, and the specter of an impending recession have all contributed to the current buyer-seller stalemate.

Stubborn Home Prices

Despite the hike in mortgage rates, home prices are still holding strong. While they are not as sky-high as the record prices of June 2022, the direction they take remains largely region-specific. Home shoppers did receive some promising news in May when the median existing-home sales price declined 3.1% to $396,100 year-over-year. However, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index revealing a 4.3% rise in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022, the market is still characterized by high prices.

Persistent Low Housing Inventory

The supply side of the equation is another crucial piece of the housing market puzzle. Since the 2008 housing crash, the market has been grappling with low housing inventory. As it stands in 2023, this trend shows no signs of abating. The current supply of existing homes is at a mere 2.9-month supply, which is significantly low by historical standards. This low inventory, combined with high demand, continues to prop up home prices, creating a challenging environment for buyers.

Cautious Optimism in Housing Starts

On a brighter note, we’ve seen some positive signals in the homebuilding sector. Single-family construction starts rose for the third consecutive month, even as building permit applications saw a marginal decrease. This trend suggests a cautious optimism among builders, reflected in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which reached 50 for the first time since July 2022.

 Looking Ahead

As we move further into 2023, the housing market remains a mixed bag. With factors such as high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and low inventory continuing to shape the landscape, both buyers and sellers will need to navigate with care. The market is due for a long, slow climb with potential bumps along the way.

Despite these challenges, there is still potential for those willing to navigate the market’s complexities. Whether you’re a buyer, a seller, or an investor, staying informed about these trends will be crucial in making sound decisions in the 2023 housing market. Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor and report on these trends.